The Overlay
Free UK and Irish racing analysis that scores every runner 0–100 with an ML model. Says it is 'never a tipster', but publishes an open record of its single highest-rated runner each day at SP and Betfair SP.
Our rating in one line: As of 3 Nov 2026, The Overlay's published record shows -48.58% ROI over 124 level-stakes bets (19 Jun – 22 Oct 2026), recomputed by us: Performance 40/100 (provisional, small sample). Transparency score: 50/100 (medium transparency).
- Type
- ML ratings + open daily pick record
- Sport
- Horse racing
- Coverage
- UK, IE (and US hub)
- Country
- UK
- Price
- Free (asks for optional "buy me a coffee" support)
- Results
- View published results ↗
- Affiliate
- Unknown
- First seen
- Domain registered 4 May 2026 (RDAP record for theoverlay.co.uk, source)
At a glance
- ROI
- -48.58%
- Settled bets
- 124
- Period
- 19 Jun – 22 Oct 2026
- Evidence
- ⚠ Small sample↻ Recomputed by us
18+. Link may be an affiliate link.
Performance breakdown
Small sample: 124 settled bets (full score needs 200).
| How the score is built | |
|---|---|
| Raw score (50 + 1.25 × ROI, capped 0–100) | 0.0 |
| Bets that count | 124 |
| Sample weight = bets that count ÷ (bets that count + 500) | 0.199 |
| Performance score = 50 + (raw − 50) × weight | 40 (provisional) |
| Published record | |
|---|---|
| Settled bets / selections | 124 |
| Profit / loss | -60.24 points (1pt level stakes) |
| Level stakes | Yes |
| ROI | -48.58% |
| Odds basis | Starting price (SP) |
| Period | 19 Jun – 22 Oct 2026 |
| Basis of record | Recomputed by us from the public JSON ledger |
| Notes | Recomputed by us from the site's public JSON record (124 picks, 26 winners, generated 23 Oct 2026). At Betfair SP (112 picks with a BSP) the return is −36.6%, matching the site's own figure. The site states 'no edge claimed'. Raw data kept on file. |
| Source | https://theoverlay.co.uk/daily_top_record.json · checked 27 Oct 2026 |
50 = break-even. Past results don't predict future returns. How we score Performance.
Transparency score breakdown
| Criterion | Max | Status | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Picks published before the off, timestamped | 25 | Not yet verified | 0 |
| Full public ledger including losers | 25 | ✓ Verified | 25 |
| Price basis stated (SP, BSP, exchange, CLV) | 15 | ✓ Verified | 15 |
| 500+ settled selections | 15 | ✗ Not met | 0 |
| Methodology documented | 10 | Not yet verified | 0 |
| Results downloadable (CSV/API) | 10 | ✓ Verified | 10 |
| Total | 100 | 50 |
Transparency score: how openly a tool or tipster publishes a record you can verify. How we score Transparency · How to raise a transparency score.
Sources
Is this you? Are you The Overlay?
If anything on this page is wrong or out of date, or you can share a fuller or newer record, a results page or your methodology, send us the public evidence. We review every request against our published criteria and log every change on the changelog. Ratings can't be paid for and are never influenced by affiliate status.
How to raise your transparency score · the same checklist for everyone
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Other horse racing AI tools we rate
- Turfs Edge Tipping (TeT)Performance 59 · Transparency 40
- RaceBot UKPerformance 57 · Transparency 90
- ProBetAIPerformance 57 · Transparency 80
- EdgeDiggerPerformance 52 · Transparency 50
- FormPickPerformance 52 · Transparency 50
- RaceChat AIPerformance 50 · Transparency 75
Guides: Best AI horse racing predictors (UK) · Does AI sports betting work? · All guides
How we check records: The transparency checklist (what counts as evidence) · AI tipping transparency report 2026 (how many records pass)