NoGuessBets
Model picks for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and college sports with a self-auditing ledger: posted price, closing line, CLV and result per pick, exportable as CSV and hash-chained daily.
Our rating in one line: As of 2 Nov 2026, NoGuessBets's published record shows -4.77% ROI over 13,192 level-stakes bets (Ledger to 25 Oct 2026), self-reported: Performance 44/100. Transparency score: 100/100 (high transparency).
- Type
- AI picks + odds tools (US sports)
- Sport
- US sports
- Coverage
- US
- Country
- Unknown
- Price
- Free (3 AI picks a day); paid $19/month or $159/year, 7-day free trial
- Results
- View published results ↗
- Affiliate
- None found
- First seen
- Domain registered 25 Dec 2025 (RDAP record for noguessbets.com, source)
At a glance
- ROI
- -4.77%
- Settled bets
- 13,192
- Period
- Ledger to 25 Oct 2026 (all graded picks; start date not stated)
- Evidence
- • Self-reported⚑ Advised odds, may be hard to match
18+. Link may be an affiliate link.
Performance breakdown
| How the score is built | |
|---|---|
| Raw score (50 + 1.25 × ROI, capped 0–100) | 44.0 |
| Bets that count (self-reported, × ½) | 6,596 |
| Sample weight = bets that count ÷ (bets that count + 500) | 0.930 |
| Performance score = 50 + (raw − 50) × weight | 44 |
| Published record | |
|---|---|
| Settled bets / selections | 13,192 |
| Profit / loss | -629.25 units (1u flat stakes) |
| Level stakes | Yes |
| ROI | -4.77% |
| Odds basis | Posted American odds frozen at publication (sportsbook named per pick) |
| Period | Ledger to 25 Oct 2026 (all graded picks; start date not stated) |
| Basis of record | Self-reported |
| Notes | Ledger shows 46,662 posted picks, 13,192 graded and a flat-stake P&L of −629.25u; ROI = −629.25 ÷ 13,192 = −4.77% (graded picks may include pushes and voids). CLV coverage 86.0%; closing-line value published per sport and market. Settled at the posted price, which may move before you can bet. |
| Source | https://noguessbets.com/picks/ledger · checked 25 Oct 2026 |
50 = break-even. Past results don't predict future returns. How we score Performance.
Transparency score breakdown
| Criterion | Max | Status | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Picks published before the off, timestamped | 25 | ✓ Verified | 25 |
| Full public ledger including losers | 25 | ✓ Verified | 25 |
| Price basis stated (SP, BSP, exchange, CLV) | 15 | ✓ Verified | 15 |
| 500+ settled selections | 15 | ✓ Verified | 15 |
| Methodology documented | 10 | ✓ Verified | 10 |
| Results downloadable (CSV/API) | 10 | ✓ Verified | 10 |
| Total | 100 | 100 |
Transparency score: how openly a tool or tipster publishes a record you can verify. How we score Transparency · How to raise a transparency score.
Sources
Is this you? Are you NoGuessBets?
If anything on this page is wrong or out of date, or you can share a fuller or newer record, a results page or your methodology, send us the public evidence. We review every request against our published criteria and log every change on the changelog. Ratings can't be paid for and are never influenced by affiliate status.
How to raise your transparency score · the same checklist for everyone
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Free for this listing. It shows the current rating and check date, updates when they change, and links back here. About the badge · Badge terms
Other US sports AI tools we rate
- Leans.aiPerformance insufficient data · Transparency 55
- DimersPerformance insufficient data · Transparency 0
- HyperPicksPerformance insufficient data · Transparency 0
- OddiblePerformance insufficient data · Transparency 0
- OddsTraderPerformance insufficient data · Transparency 0
- OutlierPerformance insufficient data · Transparency 0
Guides: Does AI sports betting work? · All guides
How we check records: The transparency checklist (what counts as evidence) · AI tipping transparency report 2026 (how many records pass)