The Least Expected
Football tipster focused on the both-teams-to-score "No" market, looking for prices it thinks are too long. Tipstrr records each tip when it is posted and keeps every result.
Our rating in one line: As of 5 Nov 2026, The Least Expected's published record shows +18.10% ROI over 1,949 level-stakes bets (March 2025 – 3 Nov 2026), independently proofed: Performance 68/100. Transparency score: 80/100 (high transparency).
- Channel
- Online / website
- Outlet / platform
- Tipstrr
- Type
- Subscription tipster (Tipstrr)
- Country
- Unknown
- Coverage
- Football
- Price
- Paid subscription on Tipstrr; price not shown on the public profile we read (18 Oct 2026)
- Record
- View published record ↗
- First seen
- Joined Tipstrr March 2025 (“Since” date on the Tipstrr profile, source)
- Affiliate
- Yes (Tipstrr referral link)
At a glance
- ROI
- +18.10%
- Settled bets
- 1,949
- Period
- March 2025 – 3 Nov 2026 (all time)
- Evidence
- ✓ Independently proofed⚑ Advised odds, may be hard to match
18+. Affiliate link: we may earn a commission. It never affects scores. Disclosure
Performance breakdown
| How the score is built | |
|---|---|
| Raw score (50 + 1.25 × ROI, capped 0–100) | 72.6 |
| Bets that count | 1,949 |
| Sample weight = bets that count ÷ (bets that count + 500) | 0.796 |
| Performance score = 50 + (raw − 50) × weight | 68 |
| Published record | |
|---|---|
| Settled bets / selections | 1,949 |
| Profit / loss | +353.70 pts (£10 level stakes = 1pt) |
| Level stakes | Yes |
| ROI | +18.10% |
| Odds basis | Advised bookmaker odds at time of posting |
| Period | March 2025 – 3 Nov 2026 (all time) |
| Basis of record | Independently proofed (Tipstrr platform) |
| Notes | Tipstrr shows £3,537 profit at £10 level stakes; win rate 36%, average odds 3.34. On Tipstrr since March 2025. Prices can move after a tip is posted and subscription fees are not deducted. |
| Source | https://tipstrr.com/tipster/the-least-expected · checked 5 Nov 2026 |
| Sample size and uncertainty | |
|---|---|
| Settled bets in the record | 1,949 |
| Approximate 95% range for ROI | +11.1% to +25.1% (published ROI +18.10%) |
| Calculated from | 35.71% strike rate from our re-check of the record on 2026-11-05; average winning price 3.31 (decimal) |
| Re-check cadence | Every 7 days; next re-check due 12 Nov 2026. |
The whole range is above break-even.
The range is our own calculation from the published record, not the tipster's figure. Winners are paid at different prices, so the true range is at least this wide. How we calculate it.
50 = break-even. Past results don't predict future returns. How we score Performance.
Transparency score breakdown
Tipstrr timestamps each tip when it is posted, keeps the full history including losers, and settles at the odds available then. We did not find a public CSV or API download.
| Criterion | Max | Status | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tips published before the off, timestamped | 25 | ✓ Verified | 25 |
| Full record including losers (public ledger or independent tally) | 25 | ✓ Verified | 25 |
| Price basis stated (SP, BSP, advised odds) | 15 | ✓ Verified | 15 |
| 500+ settled selections | 15 | ✓ Verified | 15 |
| Approach and staking explained | 10 | Not yet verified | 0 |
| Results downloadable (CSV/API) | 10 | Not yet verified | 0 |
| Total | 100 | 80 |
Transparency score: how openly a tool or tipster publishes a record you can verify. How we score Transparency · How to raise a transparency score.
Is this you? Are you The Least Expected?
If anything on this page is wrong or out of date, or you can share a fuller or newer record, a results page or your methodology, send us the public evidence. We review every request against our published criteria and log every change on the changelog. Ratings can't be paid for and are never influenced by affiliate status.
How to raise your transparency score · the same checklist for everyone
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Other football tipsters we rate
- The BTTS ExtremePerformance 61 · Transparency 65
- Javier ReyPerformance 60 · Transparency 80
- BETIKOPerformance 57 · Transparency 65
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Guides: Verified football tipsters · Does AI sports betting work? · All guides
How we check records: The transparency checklist (what counts as evidence) · AI tipping transparency report 2026 (how many records pass)